Take a dip in The Drain Pipe, your weekly guide to the Washington swamp.
Is it time to place the “swing voter” on the Endangered Species List?
When I volunteered as a precinct captain in Northern Virginia during the 2024 presidential election, I met voters of all kinds who were terrified of what the Biden-Harris administration was doing to our country and hopeful that electing Donald Trump would undo it. While I haven’t been a political operative in a while (and I don’t plan to be), it’s clear that the mood has changed.
Democrats only need three seats to flip the House, where sixteen Republican seats are toss-ups as of Oct. 16, according to the Cook Political Report. Meanwhile, they only need two seats to flip the Senate, where six Republican seats are reportedly toss-ups as of Oct. 6.
This doesn’t mean that Americans are “switching sides,” nearly as much as it could mean that they may feel that Trump hasn’t delivered the respite they were promised.
The share of Americans identifying as Republican fell 3% since last year (31% to 28%), while the share identifying as Democrats grew marginally by 1% (28% to 29%), according to data gathered by Pew Research Center from Jan. 30 through June 18. Meanwhile, those who identify with neither party rose 3% (41% to 44%).
Only 65% of Republicans say they’re certain they’ll vote in the midterms versus 72% of Democrats, according to an ABC/Post/Ipsos poll published Saturday night. The poll also found that Trump’s approval rating reached a record-low of 33%, with 75% of respondents rating America’s economy negatively.
These polls come as Trump urges voters to “pretend” he’s “on the ballot.” Sure, much of the inflation his administration is trying to tackle could’ve been caused by his predecessor, but the Iran War — which has reportedly cost the average American household $2,000 — may’ve made that a riskier request to make.
With Democrats repeatedly proving themselves to be the party of socialism and political persecution, it’s easy for Republicans to campaign on being the party of common sense. But that doesn’t mean that’ll be enough to cross the finish line. In order to meet Americans where they’re at — in the growing middle — Republicans’ receipts must show common good.
— Spencer Maximilian Lombardo