“Middle East oil flows remain surprisingly strong,” JPMorgan analysts write as the Trump administration seeks to stem rising gas prices, which over the weekend inched again toward year-to-date highs, with U.S. Central Command chaperoned tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
But Iran’s chokehold on the strait from February to June flushed a yet-to-be-recovered one billion barrels from the global market, and most Americans still disapprove of Trump’s job on gas prices.
For voters who oppose the impact of the Iran War on their pocketbooks, will pulling the lever for Democrats in the midterm elections actually make them better off?
Trump’s in a bind, it’s true. But Democrats are in a vise too.
Many Democrats have a view on energy that has been compressed into a tiny pinhole, a monomaniacal focus on one policy solution: stop burning fossil fuels.
Apocalyptic anxiety about climate change has “collapsed complex environmental-social-political issues into a cartoonish characterization of ‘climate change’ as an all-purpose causal agent responsible for just about everything that people don’t like,” Roger Pielke Jr. wrote last month.
The all-consuming climate dread limits the number of policy solutions some Democratic candidates are willing to propose. For instance, Democratic Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed criticized Republican rival Mike Rogers after he proposed to lift the state’s gas tax (“Mike — it’s not taxes that are spiking our prices, it’s the insane war your boss Donald Trump got us into,” he said on X). El-Sayed’s solution? Pivoting entirely to renewable energy.
Democratic control of one or both chambers of Congress could doom any efforts to address energy costs that fall outside the narrow agenda of lefty special interest groups.
THE EXECUTIVE
President Donald Trump is at the White House today before traveling to New York City.
New York Meet Cute
Trump will meet today with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani at Gracie Mansion, the official mayoral residence.
The New York City real estate developer and the socialist mayor were surprisingly friendly when they met after Mamdani’s win last November and during a second meeting in February. But as the midterm elections approach, Republicans have highlighted Democrats’ embrace of the “warmth of collectivism” via communism as a centerpiece of their messaging. And Mamdani announced in a press conference last week that New York City would lead a lawsuit against the Trump administration. The suit challenges the rescission of a Biden administration rule that limited the Department of Homeland Security’s ability to deny entry of any immigrant liable to become a “public charge” reliant on government welfare services.
Can the bonhomie last?
Oh My Gah
This is a Washington newsletter, but a lot of the action this week will be in New York City at the United Nations General Assembly as state leaders are expected to address interrelated crises in the Middle East.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is due to attend the UNGA (pronounced “UN’-gah,” the AP helpfully instructs us). In a phone interview Sunday with Fox News, Trump said he would be open to meeting Pezeshkian, but also that he’s in “deciding mode” over whether to blow up the nation, which could make any negotiations pretty tense.
It comes at a time of widening fighting: Saudi defense forces intercepted a ballistic missile launched by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels at its capital city of Riyadh on Saturday morning. Trump decided against striking back Sunday, according to The New York Times. The U.S. seeks to maintain transit in the Houthi-controlled Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to deliver a speech Thursday but won’t spend much time in the city. It’s not clear whether he will meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio as planned. He considered canceling the trip altogether, according to Israeli media.
In a statement, the State Department underscored that the Iranian delegation would be forbidden from buying luxury goods while in town, though maybe a trip down Canal Street is still in order.
Trump will meet with French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron in a bilateral meeting Monday.
Hotline Beijing
Trump will host Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. The impetus for the meeting is the November 10 expiration of a fragile U.S.-China tariff truce entered into last year. On the agenda: U.S. access to rare earth magnets and critical minerals, China’s efforts to crack down on the flow of fentanyl, and the new Board of Trade, a forum to negotiate the trade of non-sensitive goods.
But both parties want Trump to pay careful attention to the subject of AI. Republicans have called for redoubled efforts to maintain a competitive edge by stopping Chinese AI labs from “distilling” American models.
Meanwhile Sen. Bernie Sanders and Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna urged Trump to initiate discussions with Xi about collaborative efforts to contain the risks of AI. Khanna will hold a virtual hearing on the issue the day before the meeting.
Trump has dismissed concerns about rogue artificial intelligence menacing humankind as expressed by AI executives as a threat to American dominance that only benefits Beijing. The Chinese Communist Party appears to have its own concerns about AI empowering internal dissidents and the espionage abilities of its rivals.
Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng began talks Sunday at JP Morgan headquarters in New York. Bessent said that discussions included a new “notification mechanism” for AI incidents.
The U.S. has instituted a “notification mechanism” to mitigate the existential risks of a new technology with a rival superpower before.
THE LEGISLATIVE
The Senate is in session until Oct. 5. However, the House of Representatives adjourned last Wednesday and isn’t scheduled to come back in session until after Election Day.
Why Does Nothing Ever Happen?
Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky has a theory as to why the House adjourned so suddenly. Speaker Mike Johnson is “closing Congress to stop me,” he posted on Sunday night.
“Here’s a calendar to show the days @SpeakerJohnson has cancelled in Congress,” Massie wrote. “September 17 was canceled to avoid a vote on my Hegseth impeachment. The last two weeks in September were canceled to avoid a vote on releasing more Epstein files.”
Johnson denied similar claims earlier last week, calling Massie’s articles of impeachment against Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth over the Trump admin’s interventions in Iran and Venezuela a “publicity stunt.”
“It is a publicity stunt by someone who wants attention. It will immediately be tabled of course. But we probably won’t do that today, we will do it when we come back,” Johnson told reporters Wednesday. “We should not be playing games with national security.”
Instead, Johnson said he adjourned so members could focus on their reelection campaigns.
“It’s time for our members to go home to their districts and make the case to the American people,” Johnson told reporters.
However, with the Iran War raging on, warnings about AI’s potential existential threat to humanity underaddressed — more on that later — and gas prices as stable as ex-President Joe Biden’s cognitive abilities, it isn’t clear that packing their bags early will help our representatives make their case to voters.
Johnson, however, seems confident about his colleagues’ case to constituents.
“House Republicans passed over 70 bills this week alone — that adds to our total of over 900 bills passed through the House so far this Congress,” Johnson posted on X last Wednesday. “By contrast, the Democrat agenda is very simple: grievance politics, bigger government, higher taxes, open borders, and zero security.”
COMMITTEES TO WATCH:
Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works — Hearing to Examine Updating America’s Nuclear Waste Management Policy — Wednesday, Sept. 23, 10:00am
Senate Judiciary Committee — Standing Up for Women in Sports: Ensuring Opportunity, Fairness and Safety for Female Athletes — Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2:30pm
Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship — Small Business, Big Impact: Entrepreneurship at the Heart of Thriving Communities for 250 Years — Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2:30pm
Senate Committee on Aging — Leveling the Playing Field: Restoring America’s Edge in Generic Drug Manufacturing — Wednesday, Sept. 23, 3:30pm
Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs — Hearing to Consider Pending Nominations — Wednesday, Sept. 23, 4:00pm
Senate Committee on the Judiciary — Executive Business Meeting — Thursday, Sept. 24, 10:15am
Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions — Nomination of Heidi Overton to be Commissioner of Food and Drugs — Thursday, Sept. 24, 10:30am
THE JUDICIARY
The Supreme Court of the United States begins its 2026-2027 term Oct. 5.
Democrats’ Climate Change Agenda To Be Stress Tested
One case on the docket this coming fall is Suncor Energy Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County, which SCOTUS is scheduled to hear oral arguments for on Oct. 5. The ruling could determine whether people can sue oil and gas companies for injuries they believe were caused by interstate or even international carbon emissions.
The plaintiffs — the city and county of Boulder, Colorado — filed a lawsuit against Exxon Mobil Corporation and multiple organizations associated with Suncor Energy in April 2018 for perceived damages over the defendants’ alleged role in deceiving the public about their products’ effects on the environment.
After the majority of the Colorado Supreme Court backed the plaintiffs in May 2025, the defendants petitioned SCOTUS in August 2025 to weigh in.
Since then, dozens of amicus briefs have been filed for this case. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz wrote in support of the petitioners in October 2025, and May 21, respectively. Meanwhile, over a dozen former Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrators wrote against the petitioners on Aug. 3.
On Sept. 4, SCOTUS granted the U.S. Solicitor General permission to participate in the upcoming oral arguments.
The Second Amendment Is Under Fire Again
SCOTUS will also be revisiting your right to bear arms in Viramontes v. Cook County and Grant v. Higgins, with oral arguments scheduled for Dec. 2. The ruling could determine whether the 2nd and 14th amendments guarantee the right to own AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles.
Two Cook County residents — Cutberto Viramontes and Christopher Khaya — along with the Firearms Policy Coalition, and the Second Amendment Foundation (SAF) filed a lawsuit against the Illinois-based county in August 2021 for banning AR-15 and AR-47 platform rifles. After the Seventh Circuit upheld the ban in June 2025, the plaintiffs petitioned SCOTUS in August 2025.
Three Connecticuters — Eddie Grant Jr., Jennifer Hamilton, and Michael Stiefel — along with the Connecticut Citizens Defense League, and SAF sued to challenge the state’s May 2013 ban on specific semiautomatics like the AR-15 in June 2023. After the Second Circuit upheld the ban in August 2022, the plaintiffs petitioned SCOTUS in November 2025.
SCOTUS consolidated both cases June 30. The U.S. Solicitor General filed to participate in the upcoming oral arguments Sept. 9.
MISCELLANEOUS
Toward Bioterrorism Or Totalitarianism
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social last Saturday he plans to establish an “AI Force,” which he compared to him creating the Space Force in his first term. This came after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, xAI CEO Elon Musk, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman agreed that the development of artificial intelligence should slow down.
While it’s not immediately clear what an AI Force would look like, intelligence networks have been embedding AI into their operations.
INTERPOL put together a team of 28 specialists from 11 countries that used AI models and AI-generated scripts to narrow down a data set of 108,076 facial images of content published by jihadist groups to 6,362 over the course of 5 days, leading to 126 arrests, INTERPOL announced in a press release Friday.
However, the threat that those same tools can pose if placed in the wrong hands grows greater the further AI develops.
For example, Anthropic said it disrupted plots to use AI for conducting research that reassembled bioweapon generation, according to a report Anthropic released Sept. 10, but couldn’t tell if that research was for nefarious purposes.
And with data centers and Flock cameras providing the government with an ever-growing wealth of data on everyone, terrorists may not be the only bad actors Americans should worry about if a totalitarian takes the White House.
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But it will bring down our country!