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Greetings, Dear Reader,

Let’s play words with friends!

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WHAT DO THESE WORDS MEAN?

A lot has been said recently about the word “imminent.”

Webster’s (which was reliable in most cases until woke got to it) defines it as “ready to take place” or “happening soon.”

By the first definition, you’re in imminent danger every day on your commute. Things being simply ready to happen – having potential – doesn’t strike me as particularly “imminent.” The second definition seems much more accurate. Its immediacy is evident. “Happening soon” is already in motion. It’s coming, and the when is just an undefined blob, as irritating to the mind as the answer your mom gives you when you ask for the 97th time “WHEN DO WE GET THERE?”

“Soon.”

At a private lunch recently with various right-wing communicators, one of them asked me bluntly, “What do you make of Joe Kent’s resignation letter?”

I started by saying it seemed like par for the course when it comes to high-profile firings and resignations in the Trump era. People, like Kent, have a sudden change of heart. They go from ruthless support to self-righteous rebellion. As a result, Trump Inc. goes full murder hornet on the rebel’s credibility.

We saw this exact scenario with John Bolton.

Like Bolton, the Trump camp is now saying Kent had been quarantined for “months.” He was never trustworthy. Loyal soldiers online are now dissecting Kent’s history in support of their God King.

It all prompts the question: Well, then why’d you hire him in the first place? And that’s one Trump simply bulldozes right past.

(On Bolton, he told me flatly, “I liked John because bad people were terrified of him.”)

But that’s not what she meant by the question.

She stopped me with, “But do you think it’s true?”

“What specifically?”

“That there was ‘no imminent threat’ from Iran?”

Ahhh I should have known, the debate du jour. And as the only combat veteran at the table, also the only reporter with national security history, I should have known they’d ask.

At risk of sounding like former President Bill Clinton under deposition, I answered, “Well, that depends entirely on how you define ‘imminent.’”

–

My boxing coach has said it multiple times.

“There’s no such thing as a sucker punch.”

Of course, there is, Dear Reader, but that’s not exactly what he means. In Lenel’s universe, there are only winners and losers. There are people who are knocked out, on the pavement, at the whims of their aggressors (and trust me, that doesn’t end well), and there are people who are still conscious. The winners.

“Whoever started this ‘never hit first’ garbage has either never been in a fight or was someone’s mom,” he says. “Obviously you hit first. If you can’t run away. If you know violence is going to happen. You always hit first.”

–

I’m not going to give you an analysis of the war, its wisdom or folly, its potential third and fourth order effects. I’m just here to talk dollars and cents.

And dollars to donuts, Iran was gearing up. China was helping.

Here is a screencap from a U.S.-China Economic and Security Commission report. They are a review committee independent of the federal government that reports to Congress.

I’ve read a handful of independent reports since news broke on missile and drone tech heading to Iran. The rate at which the relationship could blossom into an unsustainable threat to global commerce in the region was what I would certainly call “imminent.”

(You can say we caused this by striking Iran last year, but I think a more astute word than caused would be “accelerated.” China’s ambitions need fuel. China needs Iran to sell it discounted fuel. China has missiles. So on.)

Throw in the cost asymmetry between offense and defense — it’s at least 20x more expensive to shoot missiles and drones down than it is to build them – and you start to have a serious problem.

Looking at all this, the thinking goes: In a matter of months from now, left unperturbed, Iran could effectively hold the entire region hostage.

–

We also know Israel was going to strike first. Frankly, who can blame them?

I know Trump walked it back. He was right to muddy the water there, politically speaking. I also know that Secretary of State Marco Rubio had no reason to bullshit when he said Washington knew Israel was going to strike, and that Iran was going to hit the U.S. as a result.

Does that qualify for “imminent?”

In my book, yes.

–

What does “America First” actually mean?

To some on the anti-war right, it means we should literally close all our bases in the Middle East and leave. I myself took that position a long time ago, having just seen two different wars and the destruction they had wrought. They were costly, not just in human cost, but also the most mind-boggling transfer of wealth I had ever seen up close.

(People say the housing crisis was bigger, to which I say maybe.)

Supporters of Trump’s war on Iran have pointed to his own statements going back decades. Of course he called his shot in the 80s, they say. This is Donald Trump.

On the other hand, Trump, at base, is a real estate man. There is finite land in the world. As people say, “they’re not making more of it.”

Anyone who’s ever gone house shopping knows a square foot stays square, but the cost of it can fluctuate wildly depending on how prime the location is.

What’s a square foot cost in the Strait of Hormuz, you think?

Should America control the flow of energy there? Is it in the interest of the American citizenry, and American posterity, to seize absolute control of that real estate?

Or is it America First to cede it to China and Iran?

Just like the word “imminent,” ol Billy Boy, it depends on your definition of America First.

Trump has declared flatly in the past that he is the one who will ultimately decide what his slogan means.

Right or wrong, he’s decided.

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State of Friday: WHAT DO THESE WORDS MEAN?