State of Tuesday: DONALD TRUMP'S DIRE STRAITS
Right on the eve of the big Beijing summit.
Greetings, Dear Reader,
Welcome back to State of the Day, where I strip the euphemism and misdirection off the day’s news and give it to you straight. No ice, no mixer.
Been a minute. I was down south with family for a long weekend, murdering ice cold beers.
Now I’m back. First thing I noticed when I popped online was this phrase: Strait of Malacca.
DONALD TRUMP’S DIRE STRAITS
One of the unheralded tropes in digital media is the phrase “three is a pattern.”
Three transgender shooters, you better write a trend piece. Three streakers at professional sports games winning big on Polymarket? Trend piece. Three liberal media outlets conduct massive layoffs? You guessed it: Trend piece.
The reason it’s unheralded is it’s totally arbitrary and unscientific. In a world this huge, three things can happen randomly without it necessarily being a trend. In fact, which is what we’re supposed to be dealing in, most of the time it isn’t a trend. In other words, “three is a trend” is utter bullshit.
Now that I’ve cleared the air: The Strait of Malacca is officially the third major shipping chokepoint Washington has gathered under its influence.
If you’re missing the trend here, a former Trump NSC advisor who oversaw both Cyber and Supply Chain spells it out:
It started with recapturing the Panama Canal. (Moved to decapitating Venezuela.) Moved again to contesting, then blockading the Strait of Hormuz. Now we’re increasing our military influence over a chokepoint right in China’s front yard. Its favorite front door is going to be coated in American surveillance and interdiction assets.
The United States announced Monday it was elevating its defense partnership with Indonesia to a “Major Defense Cooperation Partnership.” The partnership includes maritime domain awareness, subsurface/autonomous systems, training, and exercises. In other words, American sensors, gear, personnel and the like will beef up their presence around Indonesian waters.
Indonesia – along with Singapore and Malaysia – jointly oversees passage along the Strait of Malacca. That particular strait hosts an eye-popping 80% of China’s inbound oil shipments.
I’m not quite a “trust the plan” guy. There’s plenty to generate skepticism. There’s plenty to generate criticism. Whether these moves represent a coherent strategy, however, I don’t think there’s much debate.
After a couple delays, Trump is due to meet President Xi in mid-May.
Ask yourself: Who’s holding the cards?
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