State of Wednesday: OH HEY, WAR AGAIN
Will some other country benefiting from Maduro step in? Unlikely, but who knows.
Greetings, Dear Reader,
Man, what I would pay for just a minute to hear JD Vance’s thoughts right now.
Let’s get after it!
OH HEY, WAR AGAIN
Donald Trump has declared war on Venezuela.
Actually, he’s declared that he’s going to blockade all its oil exports, which are essential to keeping Nicolás Maduro financed. If Maduro can’t get any money, he’ll fall. As the old adage goes, “pay the guys with the guns first.”
Dictators need to keep the military fat and happy, or they end up dead (usually). It’s really that simple.
So Trump has declared war without literally declaring war. Sen. John Fetterman stammered and stuttered his way through signalling support for the move on Cuomo last night. It seems like he’s the only one so far. Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress have already come out swinging against Trump’s shiny new war.
It would seem obvious at this point that Trump or Marco or JD or Hegseth should be communicating in very clear and direct terms why this is good for America. It could very well be. I’m not as reflexively anti-war as most of my political cohort.
I won’t, however, be holding my breath that such an explanation is forthcoming.
Trump’s announcement contained only the slightest effort to justify the action. In it, he mentioned the word “oil” almost a half-dozen times, so you read into that what you will. He also accused Venezuela of “stealing” from the United States.
I’ve looked, and the best I could find is the nationalization of oil assets 25 years ago.
A case could be made that stabilizing Venezuela’s economy and installing a friendly leader there would have a cascading effect on the lives of Americans. Illegal immigration, drugs and human trafficking all have effects that a lot of us don’t necessarily see firsthand. We feel it, though, when kids, colleagues, neighbors up and die from spiked pills. We feel it in our taxes, in the scam NGOs bilking taxpayers for immigration services. We feel it from all the bulking up we’ve had to do at the border and in policing. Heck, I feel it when I have to wait in line behind four illegals at the 7-Eleven down the street.
So there could be a sort of trickle-down argument to be made. Perhaps a thriving and successful Venezuela might even draw immigrants who would otherwise attempt to border-hop in Texas or Arizona.
On the other hand, a lot can go wrong when you start toppling governments, even bad ones. Especially bad ones. Venezuela is decidedly not Libya, but there’s still no predicting third- and fourth-order effects on the international playing field.
I would not expect another land war. Restricting oil exports essentially puts Maduro in a rear-naked choke. He’d be toast. But again, the situation could get complicated in ways that we can’t foresee. Will some other country benefiting from Maduro step in? Unlikely, but who knows.
Trump is due to address the nation tonight at 9 p.m. The assumption in the District prior to Trump’s big Maduro announcement was that it was going to be a Christmas, end-of-year sort of thing.
I don’t think that’s the case now.
WHAT I’M WATCHING
Is Affordability Really A Democrat Hoax?
That’s it for the free portion of today’s State of the Day.
The full subscriber edition continues below with expanded analysis and additional context.