Welcome to The Drain Pipe, your guide to the week ahead in Washington.
Enough has been written about the Chipotle Price Index (CPI) by now.
But it’s quite the coincidence that a week after Spencer wrote his vision for this newsletter — a conservative’s guide to Washington that addresses the sources of socialism’s growing pull — everyone on the right started talking about burrito prices as a benchmark for the attainability of the American dream.
And there’s a wrinkle to the story that a lot of the online commentariat missed.
First, let’s review: A barbacoa-style beef between JD Vance and Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen began with the Iran War and ended with another “gas price” Americans are worried about: $20 burritos.
TPUSA spokesperson Andrew Kolvet reported that a member of the group, a college student, said that burritos shouldn’t cost $20. Thiessen replied, “Cry me a river. The burritos in the college cafeteria are included in your meal plan.”
Vance replied, “I’m surprised to hear Mark say this. If you’ve ever met him in person, it’s quite obvious the man has never missed a burrito.”
“I think he’s been a little unfair to me over the last couple of weeks, and so I decided to hit back with a little spice,” Vance explained Thursday.
That’s true: Thiessen used his column July 30 to encourage Trump to cut Vance out of his inner circle and rely on aides less hesitant to use military force in Iran. In the column, Thiessen dismissed Vance’s concerns about a ground invasion spurring a refugee crisis (“How is it in the United States’ interest to have 94 million desperate people flooding into Europe, flooding into the United States?”).
“Really?” Thiessen asked. “Ninety-four million people is the entire population of Iran.”
Nobody could possibly believe Vance was arguing every single Iranian citizen would become a refugee. If you use Amelia Bedelia-style rhetorical strategies to dismiss concerns about the interrelated crises of illegal immigration and declining quality of life for young Americans, prepare to be fat shamed.
THE EXECUTIVE
The president departed Bedminster, New Jersey, for the White House on Sunday. On the day’s agenda: an executive order, a press interview, Attorney General Todd Blanche’s swearing-in ceremony and tele-rallies for Darline Graham in South Carolina and Michael Alfonso in Wisconsin.
Jawboning
“Jawboning.” Like R-naught (R0) and credit default swap, it may be one of those rarely used words that we all suddenly become acutely aware of in a crisis.
Jawboning is the use of spoken persuasion by a president to influence business leaders into a particular action.
U.S. crude oil stocks are low. The stats arm of the Department of Energy puts out a weekly report. Check out this graph:
But gas prices do not reflect this depletion, apparently because the markets have believed Trump’s promises that a deal is just around the river strait bend — again and again and again. But some energy analysts warn that this won’t last forever and could eventually backfire. Some have speculated that the media and economists aren’t telling the full story. Others say global inventories are more durable than the black pillers are saying.
Econ 101 would suggest that when supply is low and demand remains the same, prices go up. But there are a few undeniable factors that are blunting the impact: America became an exporter of petroleum under the first Trump administration. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had upped its exports before the war began, and Beijing has been tapping into its own reserves. And the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been depleted to 305 million barrels, less than half of its 714 million barrel capacity. That’s way down from 638 million barrels in 2022 when the Biden administration began tapping into it to offset the Ukraine War. Trump has also touted new oil flows from Venezuela (at an estimated $13 billion in revenue, while a Venezuelan “transparency” website reports just $300 million).
But eventually (how quickly is up for debate) we’ll reach the tipping point at which global reserves won’t be enough to make up for the shortfall and prices will rise further.
Neither Tehran nor Washington has a good track record on truthfulness about the war, so it’s hard to discern the real status of negotiations.
Here’s another new term: “low keying it.”
“We are low keying it,” Trump told Axios Sunday. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”
JD Vance had indicated the U.S. is an active participant in negotiations just the day before in an interview on Fox News.
Iran insists that the negotiations are strictly bilateral with Oman about how the Strait will be managed. But Tehran says that opening the Strait in the first place requires the U.S. to agree to steeper demands than it made in a June memorandum of understanding, including reparations. That red line obviously requires U.S. participation in negotiations, experts have pointed out.
For now, gas is up about a dollar from last year at about $4, per the DOE report. Whether that will hold remains uncertain.
Updating The Autism Registries
Trump is weighing a new executive order directing further study into the cause of rising autism rates, according to several reports.
The news follows months of reporting citing anonymous White House officials that the Trump administration would back off issues touching on vaccines before the midterms, citing polling by Tony Fabrizio showing that parents supported the MMR and Hepatitis B vaccines.
What happened?
We reported this spring that more detailed polling by Fabrizio had shown something more nuanced: That parents support individual vaccines, but that many want flexibility in the childhood vaccination schedule overall. Voters of both parties listed the corrupting influence of the pharmaceutical industry on media and the government as their top health concern.
Then on July 27, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was pressuring Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to do more.
That report suddenly exposed that the anonymous White House aides assuring the mainstream media they were going to back off all that kooky MAHA stuff were not acting on behalf of the president.
Don’t expect the EO to be covered fairly in the mainstream press. In 2025, our organization was the first to report on internal documents from the maker of Tylenol and from the FDA showing growing concern about a potential link to neurological damage in infants.
Though Trump himself promoted these stories, virtually no other news organization looked at the documents themselves.
THE LEGISLATIVE
Senate Skips Town Before Securing The Midterm Elections
If you were worried that the House was lonely during its paid leave, fear not — the Senate adjourned via voice vote last Saturday after confirming Todd Blanche as attorney general, tightening sanctions on Russia in memoriam of the late Sen. Lindsay Graham, and extending the government’s funding until Dec. 11 (thus thwarting a shutdown ahead of the midterm elections in November).
However, on its way out, the Senate kicked the can down the road regarding any action on Sen. Mike Lee’s SAVE America Act until its members return to the imperial capitol on Sept. 14.
This effectively renders the SAVE America Act toothless this election cycle.
Lee and over a dozen other senators vowed to force a roll call vote in the event the Senate votes on going into recess before the bill is passed. However, after an alternative bill sponsored by Republican Ohio Sen. Jon Husted aiming to require photo ID in federal elections fell 8 votes shy of the 60 necessary for piercing the filibuster blocking it, Lee opted not to.
“We just finished. Todd Blanche is now confirmed. CR passed. Voter ID failed,” Lee said in an X post Saturday. “We had the first adjournment vote in decades, but those of us voting to stay were outvoted by those who wanted to leave for the next five weeks. We’ll keep fighting. This isn’t over. Far from it.”
Beth Replaced For Younger Model
It’s only right that we express our sincerest condolences for at least one valued member of the Senate community that won’t be returning to the Senate next session: Beth, Republican Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley’s long-time vacuum.
The 92-year-old President Pro Tempore lamented on X on Saturday: “U willl see Beth no more See black that’s from electrical sparks. It’s not safe to use anymore. GOOD BYE BETH . U hv been a real workhorse. Ur namesake still is hard worker. I will miss u”
Beth had “worked dependably” within the Grassley family’s service for 49 years, according to another X post made on the senator’s account later that day.
By Sunday, Beth 2.0 had been secured.
“The American ppl are so caring. I hv offer of a used Hoover fr a good Iowan in Sioux City. IT WONT SURPRISE ANYBODY BUT I ACCEPTED. BETH IS BACK BUT NEWER MODEL,” Grassley said.
THE JUDICIARY
SCOTUS adjourned its 2025-2026 term on July 30 and will reconvene on October 5. However, that doesn’t stop people from speculating what’s in store for the next term.
Alito Here To Stay
Justice Samuel Alito told Wall Street Journal last Friday that he is “obviously” staying for the upcoming term. This ends speculation sparked by a June leak (and apparent canary trap?) to an NPR reporter in June which suggested that the 76-year-old jurist was planning to retire soon.
Is Birth Tourism Here To Stay Too?
Trump signed two executive orders last Thursday aimed at combatting birthright citizenship amid the fallout of Trump v. Barbara — in which SCOTUS struck down his previous restrictions on the matter. One aims to ban children of a whole host of foreigners from receiving citizenship, ranging from terrorists to ambassadors. Another defines and bans birth tourism. Both will probably be the target of litigation, SCOTUSblog reported last Friday.
Additionally, the U.S. District Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit backed another federal court’s ruling on Friday blocking Trump from building his White House ballroom. However, the judges gave the president 14 days to appeal, which he vowed to do.
MISCELLANEOUS
Tucker Saves America
The Great Burrito Debate isn’t the spiciest conflict in the conservative movement. Tucker Carlson outlined a ten-point vision for America during a livestream last Wednesday aimed at realigning the Republican establishment with the American First movement that got it elected.
This came nearly two months after Carlson left the Republican Party over Trump’s handling of the Iran War and the Epstein files.
Carlson said America’s political system must become fair — with elites being held to the same standards as everyone else, sovereign — or unchained from foreign interests, productive, beautiful, healthy, and honest.
He also said it must become optimistic — with childbearing being the foundation of long-term planning, wise — through an education system focused on universal truth, decent, and ultimately united by a common culture.
Carlson’s announcement may’ve been a long-time coming for some alienated by sluggish lawmaking, foreign wars, and shaky gas prices.
British statesman Benjamin Disraeli warned as working-class revolts rocked Europe in 1848 that “the palace is not safe when the cottage is not happy.”
If conservatives don’t supply the answers, the world’s corniest revolution may ensue. To that end…
‘Woke 1.0 Was Crazy’
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on ABC This Week on Sunday dismissed past extreme positions in 2020 as attributable to the COVID lockdowns and “trying to entertain every and any policy that was going to get us to a better place,” and defended Black Lives Matter as ultimately “fruitful.”
Woke 1.0 made hiring and promotion less meritocratic across academia and the S&P 500, encouraged looting, riots and arson, and sparked a rise in crime. A shrug of the shoulders probably won’t be sufficient to compensate for the lives lost to violence, careers shortchanged, and families torn apart.
Meanwhile, on the left’s most important platform plank, taxing the rich, Democratic Socialists of America Co-Chair Megan Romer muddled through this tough follow-up: “What exactly do you mean?”
“I don’t have a solid…” she muttered. “It’s democracy, right? We need to look at what we need to spend, and what we need. We don’t want to depend on the existence of millionaires because that means people are still being exploited. So yeah. We need to look at what we need to pay for in the interim, what tax base we need for that to happen, and build from there.”
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