Unfit to Print: DEMOCRAT DUMMYMANDER
This gerrymander is going to face a long battle in the courts
Hey y’all, welcome back to Unfit to Print.
Today we’re back with more on the Virginia redistricting vote and the weird trend of scientists disappearing and dying.
DEMOCRAT DUMMYMANDER
The post-election numbers are coming out of the Virginia redistricting effort and some Republican strategists are suggesting that Democrats might have shot themselves in the foot.
The proposed new map, which ostensibly gives Democrats a 10-1 advantage for congressional seats compared to the current 6-5 advantage, passed by a roughly three-point margin after all the votes were tallied.
However, the ten new blue-leaning seats are not guaranteed for Democrats. Patrick Ruffini, the pollster for Echelon Insights, noted that the “lobster district” — which I wrote about in yesterday’s newsletter — only voted in favor of the ballot initiative by 0.3 points. The newly drawn district voted seven points in favor of former Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
“Dummymander incoming?” Ruffini wondered.
Matt Whitlock, a Republican strategist and communicator, pointed out that Republicans got three of the newly drawn districts to vote against the gerrymandered map, even though they were expected to only win one. In addition to the deep red 9th district, Republicans also managed to win the 2nd and 6th districts.
“This is pretty amazing,” Whitlock wrote. “Democrats leaned so heavily on Fairfax to drive the entire referendum, but Republicans actually drove enough turnout to win 3 of the new districts, got ‘The Lobster’ within 0.3, and 2 others blue districts within 5.”
It could be that the proposed new map was just so obviously unfair that a bunch of moderates or center-left voters in those districts voted against it. Or GOP voters were motivated to turn out. It could also be a sign that the Democrat brand is incredibly damaged in Virginia … just five months after Governor Abigail Spanberger defeated her Republican opponent by 15 points.
All that being said, this gerrymander is going to face a long battle in the courts. Former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli laid out potential areas for legal challenges and in a tweet Wednesday said that the Tazewell Circuit Court rendered the referendum unconstitutional. The election cannot be certified, which means the map can’t go into effect — although Cuccinelli said he expects an appeal. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up at the Virginia Supreme Court.
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